– We’re diving deeper into Vegas lines when it comes to DFS Tennis, part two of this Daily Fantasy Sports series, and we’re starting right now. What’s up, guys? Joe Holka here, welcome to another Daily Fantasy Sports and betting video. If this your first time here, and you wanna become a profitable draft games player, get better at betting.
Certain people play better on certain surfaces. There’s clay, grass, hard, all these different surfaces, and certain people grew up playing on clay. So if they grew up playing on clay, and that’s their natural surface, they’re probably very good there.
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There’s other people that are terrible on clay. They can’t play on clay to save their life. The pace of play is slower, like the ball speed can be higher, so for example, there was a tournament couple of weeks ago where the ball speed was way lower because the court played extremely slow. So a guy like John Isner, who’s a big serve-bot, it really hurts him compared to what he would be in a situation where it’s a very good serving surface.
– Being a tennis guy definitely comes into play because tennis has a ton of data there, there’s just so many different angles you can take on a match, and being able to contextualize it in a way that will help you, instead of just be total noise, is you know, that’s part of the edge that you’re trying to gain. One basic thing to look at is to evaluate how strong a player is on a given surface, and how that affects their range of outcomes. And also how the surface affects their range of outcomes. Tennis is unique in that the field of play differs – Some guys are better on clay, some guys are better on grass, that type of thing, yeah?
– Precisely, and then evaluating how that plays into their range of outcomes. Like of course, Vegas is taking that into consideration, totally, like, it’s efficient, et cetera. But understanding how the range of outcomes comes to that is one thing that’s really important, so a basic example, it also comes into play more for non-top players because people like Rafael Nadal, these really high-up players, their surface-adjusted abilities are definitely accounted for way more in the odds, whereas certain lower-ranked players might not go into consideration for Vegas as much as they potentially should.
– We were just talking about with golf, and we were talking about this with MMA, so there’s some guys that, whether they’re new to the pro circuit, like, there’s just not enough data about them out there, so that’s gonna be reflected in the Vegas line, so I would assume in tennis, and correct me if I’m wrong, knowing which guys are better on which surfaces is like a huge edge, and so if we don’t have that information for some of these newer guys, that’s probably something that definitely is a pretty big edge in DFS. By the way guys, if you’ve ever found value in any of my videos or livestreams, one of the best ways to support what I’m trying to do here for free is to throw me the follow over on Twitter. And if you’re new to the community, I also do a ton of content over on Instagram, specifically IGTV, so if you could take a few seconds and make sure you’re following me over there as well, I’d really appreciate it.
So just like anything, we wanna talk a little bit about game selection, but also what is this current state of DFS Tennis. Is there an edge? I think the edge is in the GPP, I think the 10 GPP is very good. I looked through cash games a lot, and a lot of the time you see very high overlap, so I don’t think cash is great for tennis. I think that is more of a GPP sport.
I think that if you’re playing the 10 dollar GPP, or the 180 GPP, there’s a lot of situations that you can sort of maneuver around, so I think that’s a better option, if you’re just startin’ to get into it, you’re better off playin’ GPP. But if you look at cash games, there’s usually three or four guys or girls every slate where it is massively owned, so if you play GPPs and avoid them, you might see them at 50% owned, if they lose, you’re in a great spot already. – In terms of the sharpness, there’s definitely a huge edge there, even in the basic level one, like picking basic winners off odds. People just miss that all the time.
It’s been improving. So the DraftKings tennis is six months old . It started in July of last year with Wimbledon, so the public’s been getting better, but the edge is still there, and I think that every Grand Slam, more people seem to, Grand Slams, there’re four of them per year, they’re the biggest tennis tournaments, the majors, and they of course get the most TV viewership, like, everybody knows about them, so it’s better marketing, trafficking, so that definitely brings people into the game.
So like, Australian Open, tons of people, like 25k up top, for some of the big GPPs, which is definitely what I’m looking for, like I prefer the main slate GPPS because I love just Mming and bouncing my exposures, and– – So you’re playing multiple lineups and the bigger ones for these bigger contests, like similar to soccer, where during the World Cup, I think people don’t realize how popular sports like tennis and soccer are worldwide, so that’s how this sport grows, is if like they can kinda advertise a little bit more and actually make it easier for those people– – International. – Yeah, make it more international, and that’s how these prize bowls grow, so like if you’re grinding something like this, and it does blow up, you’re gonna have such a large edge over the field if it does turn a little bit more mainstream. So I think that– – It’s what I’m looking for– – Being ready for that is great, yeah. So yeah, that’s obviously gonna be great for you, someone that knows a lot about the game of tennis in general, if we do get that large influx of just the common fan, that’s gonna be a period of time where I would imagine you’re gonna have a massive edge, and I’ll make sure that you’re on my block list. – Hope so, dude. So one cool thing about tennis, too, is that if people get sharper, it’s a great contrarian sport too because the primary, predicting ownership using odds, is like, not that tough, but if people start figuring it out, like it’s there.
And then being contrarian, you play their opponents, and the correlation in benefit from hitting on those low-ownership plays just like… It’s a really cool drafting sport. I think they have a great setup with– – Yeah, in the chat, Ali was saying there’s a ton of new DFS players in the tennis tournament, so I’d imagine a lot of badgress players that you’re playing against, that don’t really know the game as well as you do, which is interesting, I– – It just seemed to be a very good sport of being a niche range, where you maybe need like a thousand dollars a day to play, but if you play, you can be really good, and I’ve noticed people are really bad at GPP, they don’t really know what they’re doing. So it’s a solid situation in GPP sense, but the cash game, I sort of dried up with the games I was getting, but I don’t get some great games a lot of the time.
So I do still have that interest, I still follow it, but it just has to be the right time of year, it has to make sense for me to play it, I have to be wanting to– (thunder crashes) – If you like my work and you wanna support my work, the number one way you can do so for free is by bookmarking one of the Amazon links in the description below. A lot of people just find it easier to remember to use for their day-to-day shopping that way because if you use that link, any of those ones in the description, doesn’t matter what the product is, it doesn’t matter what you buy at that point because you use that to get to Amazon, you’re doing your part to support the channel, so if you’re new to the Amazon Crew, definitely let me know in the comments, and I’ll throw you a shout-out in the next video. So one of the biggest problems with DFS Tennis is people think it’s just looking at the Vegas odds, but there’s also a lot of recency bias that we have to get over, and a ton that we need to look into besides just Vegas. (thunder crashes) – Yeah, I just wanted to highlight some of the other ways to attack tennis beyond the odds. Just like, a basic overview.
A matchup in style is really important to understand, and like, using that to adjust the range, all these are to adjust the range of outcomes, based on the odds. So matchup style is really important, people who are vulnerable versus big servers, you can pull data to understand that, or just visually and subjectively understanding how their games play off, I found an edge knowing that and that’s just ’cause I watch a lot of tennis, I understand that other things take into account, like head-to-head, how you value that is really important, understanding what happened in prior matches and whether it can be predicted for future ones, looking at recent form is really important, like understanding youth, that’s important for any sport, up-and-coming players being able to understand, if this is like their breakout, or if they just happened to play really well for a short period of time, that kind of thing. How do you value that? And Vegas reacts a lot to recency bias, in terms of that, so that’s one part you can definitely take advantage of it.
Health is really important. Knowing, obviously, health of the players is important. And then analyzing line movement is also really important because just taking the odds at face value at different times definitely isn’t– So it’s easy to say that looking at just Vegas is not the way to go, but how do we actually find mispriced players? How do we get leverage? I know this is a big-time sport for ownership, so I wanna talk a little bit about the game theory side of things.
If you look through the pricing, you find big discrepancies. Generally by not doing those big discrepancies, you find good GPP plays because if a guy’s 6500, and he’s badly mispriced, it means that everyone else at that price point’s not gonna be touched, it’s gonna be that guy. And also, if you see a guy’s 6500 that shouldn’t be, people are gonna go that way with their roster construction, so people see a guy that’s 6A, they’re badly mispriced, all of a sudden the whole midrange sort of gets overlooked because people just end up hanging to the top end because they have the salary to do so. So you can sort of use Vegas to move around and find holes where people aren’t gonna play guys on certain days. – For sure, yeah. One cool thing about DraftKing’s Tennis is that you can have, so you have slates with different tournaments on them, and like, there could be the huge, high-profile pro tournament, but then you also have the really low-level pro tournament with guys that most people have never heard of, and it’s just interesting how your top-20 player might be priced below a really bad player, who has a good matchup in his lower tournament.
It’s just an interesting dynamic. Just a reminder, if you’re looking to take your game to that next level, I do offer one-on-one coaching, so definitely check out joeholka.com/coaching if you want a little bit more information on that. Actually super excited, gonna be rolling out some group coaching sessions for NFL in particular this season, and I’m super excited about, so if you want a little bit more info, you can also just hit me up in the comments below, definitely make sure and get back to you there. If you just wanna continue to learn in this group setting, that’s totally fine as well.
A lot of people don’t realize if you have an Amazon Prime account, and a lot of people do these days, you also automatically have access to a free Twitch Prime subscription, so you’re basically getting free access to our premium Discord chat that has a bunch of subscriber-only perks, and then you are a part of the community. So make sure you’re taking advantage of those livestreams over on Twitch, and throw me the follow, Twitch.tv/JoeHolka, make sure you don’t miss anything over there either. So, if you’ve seen any of my other videos or series, you know that I base most of my decisions upon data, so that was a big question that I had for tennis, is there a place we can go to get some of this information, and how do we use that in DFS, outside of just world ranking? So how would someone go about even navigating this to find something that’d be useful for DFS? – Click on player name.
– We’re gonna click on Novak D-jovich. – Djokovic, yeah, the best player in the world right now. – There you go, I don’t even know who this is, so I assume that you will wanna scoop my games. – So what I’m doing is, in their page, you can cut their data in tons of different ways. You can look at head-to-heads, and analyze their performance in terms of understanding, statistically, how those results happen, and then you can also cut by surface, that’s a big one.
One of the things. Yeah, I’m looking at surface right now, let’s just talk about this guy on clay, for example. So it looks like his ace percentage on clay, 4.7%, if we’re just looking at on the hard surface, it’s 7.3%, so this kind of stuff really matters based on surface, for sure, so this is an awesome site, man. – Yeah, for sure. So one of the advantages of Ultimate Tennis Statistics over Tennis Abstract is that you can cut for indoor surface because playing indoors versus outdoors, that makes a difference, the whole dome effect, if you’re comparing it to football.
So one of the advantages of Ultimate Tennis Statistics is that you can cut data by indoor or hard, versus some other databases, you can’t. The thing to know about Ultimate Tennis Statistics is that it’s men’s only. Tennis Abstract is where you wanna look for the women.
– You can look at rating, you can look at recent form, you can look at points that people are protecting, so the way the rankings go in the tennis is that you get points based on how you finish at tournament, and it’s a rolling year, so if you won an event last year, that means, this year, at that event, you have a lot of points to protect. So, if, let’s say you had a bad year, and you could be way lower in the rankings based on that tournament, if you lose that tournament or have a bad outcome there because of what you have currently on board. If you wanna learn more about how to become a profitable Daily Fantasy Sports player, and how to get better at betting, start out by hitting that Subscribe icon in the bottom right-hand corner if you haven’t already, wanna make sure you don’t miss anything.